Western Tucson, AZ 
124
FXUS65 KTWC 090958
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
258 AM MST Wed Apr 9 2025
.SYNOPSIS...This week will see a strong ridge of high pressure
move into the area. This will bring a significant warm-up in
afternoon temperatures with some record highs across the region
expected Thursday through Saturday. Breezes return on Saturday and
Sunday and elevating fire weather concerns.
&&
.DISCUSSION...The ridge that has been slowly increasing the
daytime high temperatures continues and keep the near to record
breaking warm temperatures through the weekend. The hottest day
will be Friday, with Tucson possibly seeing the earliest 100
degree day on record with the NBM`s current probability of KTUS
reaching 100 degrees is 90 percent. The EMCWF EFI is really
highlighting the warm daytime and nighttime temperatures.
The ridge begins to breakdown and move eastward, allowing for a
passing system to the north to bring an uptick in afternoon winds
Saturday and Sunday. The dry weather conditions and dry fuels can
lead to elevated fire weather conditions this weekend, more in
the fire weather section.
Looking ahead, some of the ensembles are hinting at some troughing
in the middle/end of next week, but time will tell how that can
potentially affect Southeastern Arizona.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 10/12Z.
Mostly SKC with patches of clouds AOA 20k ft passing thru under
northerly flow aloft. SFC winds northwesterly from 09/18Z thru
10/06 and again aft 10/21Z at speeds of 6-12 kts with the
occasional afternoon gusts up to 18 kts. In the overnight, SFC
winds terrain driven less than 10 kts. Aviation discussion not
updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Dry conditions and warming temperatures will be
the story for the rest of the week as a strong ridge of high
pressure builds over the area. Temperatures will be 10 to 20
degrees above normal with records by Friday. Min RH values will be
in the single digits each day with overnight recoveries in the
teens to low twenties. Winds will generally follow diurnal trends
of less than 15 mph with afternoon gustiness due to strong surface
heating. With the hot and dry conditions leading up to this
weekend, wind speeds will increase due to a passing dry weather
system to our north. This will lead to elevated fire weather
conditions with isolated areas of near critical on Saturday and
Sunday due with winds around 20 mph with strong gusts nearing 35
mph.
&&
.CLIMATE...Record or near record high temperatures are forecast
Thursday thru Saturday.
Date Apr 10 Apr 11 Apr 12
FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR FCST RCD/YR
Tucson Intl Airport 97 97/2023 100 99/2023 98 96/1988
Ajo 99 101/1989 102 100/2023 97 100/1936
Kitt Peak 79 77/1989 82 79/1989 80 75/1988
Organ Pipe Cactus 100 99/2023 102 99/2023 96 98/1985
Picacho Peak 94 100/2023 98 100/2023 96 97/2008
Safford Ag Station 96 95/1989 98 95/2023 96 93/1960
Sierra Vista 90 89/1989 93 89/2018 90 90/2018
Tombstone 90 90/1960 93 91/2018 90 91/2018
Willcox 91 90/1972 94 91/1946 92 92/1946
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
Tetrault
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