803
FXUS65 KTWC 130826
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
126 AM MST Sat Jun 13 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Breezy afternoons with temperatures near normal into
next week. Increased moisture this weekend and into next week will
result in mainly afternoon shower and thunderstorm chances mainly
from Tucson south and eastward.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Moisture has continued to stream into southeast
Arizona from Sonora over the past 24 hours with latest PWAT values
ranging from about 0.8 inches (eastern areas) to 1.3 inches (west of
Tucson). Latest KEMX radar shows some virga and even a few light
showers, but these will continue to diminish through the early
morning.
As deeper moisture is now in place for much of southeast Arizona,
that will set the stage for increased shower and thunderstorm
chances this weekend, especially for locales south and east of
Tucson. With the mid-upper level high elongated on a east-west axis
from Sonora/Chihuahua into Texas and weak shortwaves traversing
through the westerly flow around the Four Corners region, this
certainly isn`t a classic monsoon pattern over the next few days.
However, given the reinforcing nature of the lower level moisture
from Sonora, that will be enough for shower and thunderstorms
chances into next week.
For this afternoon, the focus will be on Santa Cruz/southern Cochise
County where the best combination of moisture and instability
resides to result in a 20 to 40 percent chance of showers and
thunderstorms. The main concern will be gusty outflow winds and
localized blowing dust with the HREF depicting a 50-70 percent
chance of 40-km neighborhood probability in excess of 30 knots for
these locales. These shower and thunderstorm chances expand north
and west on Sunday to include the Tucson area with gusty winds and
areas of blowing dust along with lightning continuing to be the main
impacts. Rain amounts through the weekend remain fairly light at
generally less than 0.25".
Into early next week, with moisture remaining in place across Sonora
and outflows helping to reinforce this moisture along the Int`l
border, we`ll continue to maintain isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms focused along the border from Sasabe eastward.
Westerly flow elsewhere should generally be enough to keep things
mainly dry, though we`ll have to keep an eye on day-to-day
specifics.
Temperatures through the forecast period will remain near normal
with some afternoon breezes.
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 14/12Z.
SCT-BKN clouds for 10k-13k ft AGL and AOA 20k ft AGL through the
forecast period. Residual early morning -SHRA will dissipate by
13/12Z, then additional isolated to scattered -TSRA is expected
along the Int`l border and may impact at KDUG and KOLS, but
confidence too low to include in TAFs. KTUS is unlikely to be
impacted by convection today. Main threats will be gusty outflow
winds 25-35 kts with these storms. Otherwise, SFC winds less than 10
kts through 13/18Z, then becoming WLY/NWLY 7-14 kts gusting to 20
kts, with gusts to 25 kts at KSAD. SFC winds diminish to 10 kts or
less again aft 14/04Z. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF
amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Winds will remain west/northwest each day into
early next week with speeds of 10-15 mph and gusts to 22 mph
across much of the area with stronger speeds of 15-20 mph and gusts
to 30 mph in lower elevations of Graham county. Moisture levels will
be higher this afternoon into early next week, with minimum relative
humidity 15-30 percent in lower elevations and 30-40 percent in the
mountains. This will bring bring chances (20-40 percent) for showers
and thunderstorms this afternoon along the Int`l border from Sasabe
eastward with gusty outflow winds and lightning. These chances
expand north and west to include the Tucson area Sunday. Residual
storm chances continue south and east of Tucson Monday, remaining
focused along the Int`l border from Nogales eastward through the
middle of next week.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&
$$
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