239
FXUS65 KTWC 251028
AFDTWC
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tucson AZ
328 AM MST Sat Apr 25 2026
.SYNOPSIS...A weather disturbance moving into Arizona will
bring strong and gusty westerly winds capable of producing areas
of blowing dust both today and Sunday, critical fire weather
conditions east of Tucson today, along with a slight chance of
light showers north of Tucson later tonight into Sunday.
Temperatures will be below normal Sunday and Monday then warm
to normal or just above normal the remainder of the work week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...Breezy to windy conditions this weekend as a
weather weat of California tightens up the pressure gradient.
Winds this afternoon will be southwest 15 to 25 mph with gusts
30 to 40 mph while on Sunday they will be stronger 20 to 30 mph
with gusts 35 to 45 mph, locally higher in the mountains. Fire
weather conditions are elevated this weekend with a Red Flag in
effect this afternoon east of Tucson. An increase in moisture
later tonight into Sunday will keep RH values above 15 percent,
thus no Red Flag warning. However the strongest winds Sunday
will be across Cochise county, thus a Wind advisory has been
issued. The gusty winds will produce areas of blowing dust. The
moisture increase later tonight into Sunday may bring a small
chance, less then 20 percent, of light rain showers northeast of
Tucson. High temperatures today will be similar to yesterday
then 5 to 10 degrees cooler on Sunday before rebounding on
Monday.
Days 4 to 7 (Tuesday April 28 to Friday May 1)
High temperatures warmer by Tuesday. The next shot of rain
(10-30%) for the area will be Wednesday into early Friday as a
southern stream system moves into the desert southwest. Plenty
of uncertainty in the ensemble world on the timing, track, depth
and moisture associated with this next system. No issues with
the forecast provided by the Weather Prediction Center for this
period.
8-14 day outlook (May 2 to May 8)
Temperature: Leaning above normal (41-48%)
Precipitation: Leaning above normal NE of Tucson (33-36%)
&&
.AVIATION...Valid through 26/12Z.
BKN clouds AOA 18k ft AGL thru much of valid pd although these
clouds will diminish from west to east late in valid pd. SFC
winds terrain driven less than 10 kts thru 25/16z then again
after 26/04z. At other times, SWLY/WLY 15-20 kts with gusts
25-35 kts. Aviation discussion not updated for TAF amendments.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...A weather disturbance moving into southeast
Arizona will bring strong and gusty westerly winds both today
and Sunday, along with a slim chance of light showers north
of Tucson late tonight into Sunday morning. 20-foot winds today
will be 15-25 mph with gusts 30 to 40 mph leading to areas of
critical fire weather conditions east of Tucson. A Red Flag
Warning is in effect for most of fire weather zones 151 and 152.
There is some concern that cloud cover and moisture moving in
could keep RH values above 15 percent, but fuels are dry enough
right now to still warrant a Red Flag. Winds will still be
strong Sunday east of Tucson, but with RH values increasing the
threat for critical fire weather conditions is greatly reduced.
&&
.TWC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM MST this
evening for AZZ151-152.
Wind Advisory from 10 AM to 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ507-508.
&&
$$
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