045
FXUS65 KPSR 242330
AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
430 PM MST Tue Jun 24 2025
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- Temperatures continue their below normal stretch through tomorrow,
with near to above normal readings returning by Thursday as high
pressure builds over the region
- Dry conditions prevail elsewhere through the weekend with daily
afternoon and evening breeziness (gusts 15 to 25 mph) being common
- Widespread Moderate HeatRisk by this weekend, with localized Major
HeatRisk by the start of next week
&&
.DISCUSSION...
The low pressure aloft continues to hover over the Western CONUS as
it continues to slowly degrade. Due to the low lingering another day
of below normal temperatures has graced the Desert SW. Tomorrow will
be another below normal day for the lower deserts, but will see
highs increase by 1-3 degrees as high pressure builds. NBM has
afternoon highs pushing back to near and above normal levels by
Thursday, with some locations expecting temperatures back at or
above the 110 degree mark as early as Saturday.
Some parts of Arizona, mainly eastern portions, have started to see
a bit of some seasonal monsoon action this afternoon as better
moisture has pushed into the state. South-Eastern Gila County,
potentially up to Globe, is the only area in our forecast region
that may seen any of these convective storms, as the latest HRRR
model has picked up on signals of reflectivity expected this
afternoon. These storms, if any as PoPs are between 15-25%, will be
fairly weak and short lived as they expect to pass by early this
evening. Once the moisture with these storms pass through SE Gila
County, our forecast area will remain dry as the axis of decent
monsoonal moisture will remain too far to the east.
What little rain chances there are over our area will be wiped out
by tomorrow as the axis of greatest moisture shifts further east,
closer to the Arizona/New Mexico border. Areas of far southeastern
AZ and up toward the White Mountains will continue to see daily rain
chances continue through the remainder of the workweek, but most of
the state will continue to see below normal PWAT values. With dry
air and increasing heights aloft, the return of afternoon
temperatures between 110-115 degrees is not far fetched, as readings
at these levels should be common across the lower deserts by the
late weekend and the start of next week. During that time Widespread
Moderate HeatRisk will be common with potential of localized Major
on Monday.
For those of you looking forward to more widespread showers and
thunderstorms, there is some good news. Current global ensembles are
hinting at better moisture beginning to push further into Arizona by
next week. This would facilitate better chances for rainfall across
a broader area of the state. However, extended models still shows
signals of another weak trough that could keep more dry
southwesterly flow in place, inhibiting the advancement of moisture
into our region, or even cut the residence time of this initial push
of moisture short. However, ensemble trends signaling better
moisture by early July is certainly a step in the right direction to
see the beginnings of more expansive rainfall activity.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 2330Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, KDVT:
Occasional gusty winds will be the only weather issue through
Wednesday afternoon with afternoon cloud decks relegated to
mountains well east of the terminals. Confidence is good the W/SW
will prevail through the evening with a few gusts around 15kt.
Timing of the wind shift back to the nocturnal easterly should be
similar to this morning. Confidence is very good that wind gusts
will largely be absent Wednesday afternoon with the westerly wind
shift more distinct, and less variability during the directional
transition.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No major weather issues will exist through Wednesday afternoon under
clear skies. South winds will be preferred at KBLH with modest gusts
this evening. Confidence is good that directions with shift to
westerly with sunset at KIPL, though greater uncertainty exists
regarding the magnitude of gusts early evening. A period of variable
directions may be possible in the morning with light SE winds common
through the afternoon. While likely not directly impacting sfc
visibilities, lofted smoke/haze may occasionally affect slantwise
visibilities during the morning and afternoon/evening hours.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Outside of some isolated dry thunderstorm impacts for parts of Gila
County this afternoon, no significant fire weather concerns are
expected over the next several days. Winds (outside of any potential
thunderstorm winds) will follow familiar diurnal trends with typical
afternoon and evening breeziness, gusting to 15-25 mph. Daily MinRH
values over the next few days will only run between 5-15% and
overnight recoveries will not offer much relief as readings hover
between 20-40% for most areas. Below normal temperatures will
continue through Wednesday but we gradually warm through the rest of
the week with lower desert highs reaching near 110 degrees by
Saturday.
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
DISCUSSION...Ryan/RW
AVIATION...18
FIRE WEATHER...RW
NWS Phoenix Office
Tucson, AZ 
