516
FXUS65 KPSR 101101
AFDPSR
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Phoenix AZ
400 AM MST Tue Mar 10 2026
.UPDATE...
Updated Aviation
&&
.KEY MESSAGES...
- A low pressure system and lingering showers will exit the region
today with a brief period of cooler temperatures.
- High pressure will quickly build into the region the remainder of
the week leading to dry weather and record warmth possible by the
weekend.
&&
.SHORT TERM /Today through Thursday/...
A well defined cutoff low continues its slow progression eastward
into cntrl/nrn Sonora with several vorticity centers rotating about
the larger cyclonic gyre. Upper level divergence fields remain
maximized over the forecast area on the northern edge of the cold
core with modest theta-e advection importing moisture northward.
Several bands of showers will continue to pivot into southern Gila
County through the morning before more defined subsidence spreads
into the area by late afternoon in response to the cutoff finally
accelerating into far west Texas. Thereafter, pronounced height rises
will quickly build into the SW Conus as broad subtropical ridging
becomes established over the East Pacific. There is excellent
forecast confidence H5 heights gradually climb near 585dm resulting
in sfc temperatures nearly 15F above normal Thursday.
&&
.LONG TERM /Friday through Monday/...
Forecast confidence remains excellent through the weekend with
resounding ensemble agreement depicting stagnant longwave features
settling over the Conus. With trough amplification over the eastern
Conus, strong East Pacific ridging will envelop the Southwest with
H5 heights oscillating between 582-588dm. Ensemble guidance spread
remains extremely narrow and reflects anomalous tropospheric
height/thermal measures near the maximum of mid March climatology.
High temperatures 20F above normal will become common by the end of
the week resulting in widespread minor HeatRisk while also setting
daily records (see Climate section). It`s becoming inevitable that
some the warmer, lower desert communities will experience the first
100F of the season early next week as the NBM 50th percentiles now
covers this threshold. Virtually all ensemble members indicate even
warmer weather materializing by the middle of next week as H5
heights likely eclipse 590dm. The ensemble guidance envelop is
solidly above the 100F threshold for all lower desert communities
portending a prolonged period of record setting, and potentially
unprecedented warmth.
&&
.AVIATION...Updated at 1100Z.
South Central Arizona including KPHX, KIWA, KSDL, and KDVT:
No aviation concerns are expected during the TAF forecast as -SHRA
activity clears the region. Winds will follow diurnal trends with
extended periods of VRB through the early daylight hours and an
eariler-than-usual establishment of westerly directions. A few gusts
may observed with those late morning west winds, but any breezes
should be mostly in the mid to upper teens. Lower CIGs around 6-8k
ft will gradually scatter out after sunrise, with mostly clear skies
taking over by the evening hours.
Southeast California/Southwest Arizona including KIPL and KBLH:
No aviation concerns are expected during the next 24 hours. Winds
will be generally light aob 10 kts at both terminals with some
windows of VRB to calm conditions. Outside of these light and
variable periods, KIPL will see winds flip between east and west,
while KBLH can expected a generally S/SW component throughout the
forecast. Skies will be generally clear.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...
Dry weather with unusually warm temperatures and low humidities will
return during the latter half of the week with record setting warmth
likely by the weekend. Minimum humidity levels in a 25-50% range
this afternoon will deteriorate significantly closer to a 7-15%
range late in the week. Correspondingly, good to excellent overnight
recovery of 60-90% will retreat into a 15-40% poor to fair category.
Winds will be fairly light with only modest afternoon upslope
gustiness limiting a greater fire weather danger.
&&
CLIMATE...
Daily record highs later this week/early next week:
Date Phoenix Yuma El Centro
---- ------- ---- ---------
3/12 94 in 1900 100 in 1916 95 in 2017
3/13 92 in 2017 95 in 2017 95 in 2017
3/14 95 in 2013 96 in 2017 97 in 2017
3/15 92 in 2013 98 in 1934 100 in 1934
3/16 99 in 2007 99 in 2007 100 in 2007
3/17 99 in 2007 101 in 2007 101 in 2007
3/18 95 in 2017 96 in 2017 95 in 2007
&&
.PSR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AZ...None.
CA...None.
&&
$$
SHORT TERM...18
LONG TERM...18
AVIATION...RW
FIRE WEATHER...18
CLIMATE...18
NWS Phoenix Office
Tucson, AZ 
