416
FXUS65 KFGZ 242305
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
405 PM MST Tue Jun 24 2025
.SYNOPSIS...Temperatures look to gradually climb through the
period, with potential for heat concerns at lower elevations this
weekend. Moisture will slowly push into the region through the
next several days, initially across far eastern Arizona and
pushing westward by the middle of next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...With a trough axis to our west and a large area
of high pressure to our east, Arizona remains in a mostly dry
southwesterly flow. Maybe you`ve noticed New Mexico enjoying some
much needed rain, and they`ll remain under a wetter pattern than
us until the trough across the Great Basin region lifts out of the
area. We cannot rule out a few showers/storms creeping into Apache
County through the end of the week, but moisture does look to be
limited to far eastern Arizona.
The first hint at high pressure moving more towards the Four
Corners is this weekend. Our confidence is higher when it comes to
the hot to dangerously hot temperatures that will fall under this
ridge, but moisture for the weekend is still iffy. There are not
any heat related products in place for the lower elevations of
the Grand Canyon at this time, but that could change as we inch
towards Friday.
Model guidance really wants to latch onto the idea of elevated
moisture pushing into Arizona, but looking at trends for next
week, there could be another trough across the West Coast that
stunts our potential for monsoon showers/storms. On the bright
side, these solutions are still still a week or so away, so
there`s plenty of time for things to shift.
&&
.AVIATION...Wednesday 25/00Z through Thursday 26/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA east of a KSOW-KRQE line. Gusty,
erratic winds possible in and around TS. SW winds 10-15 kts with
gusts to 20-30 kts through 03Z, becoming light and variable
overnight. SW winds increase to 10-20 kts after 16Z.
OUTLOOK...Thursday 26/00Z through Saturday 28/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA each afternoon east of a KSOW-KRQE
line. Gusty, erratic winds possible in and around TS. SW winds
10-15 kts each afternoon, becoming light and variable overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Thursday...Elevated fire weather
conditions continue today across much of northern Arizona with
southwest winds of 15-20 mph and gusts up to 30 mph. Lighter winds
about 10-15 mph can be expected Wednesday and Thursday.
Mostly dry conditions are expected through Thursday, with the
exception of far eastern Arizona, which will see isolated showers
and thunderstorms each day. Erratic wind gusts are likely in or near
storms.
Friday through Sunday...Warming temperatures and dry conditions,
outside of daily chances for high-based showers and storms over the
White Mountains. Winds will be west to southwest 5-15 mph each
afternoon.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...MCT
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
