300
FXUS65 KFGZ 242023
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
123 PM MST Fri Jul 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...High pressure will continue to dominate the Southwest
through the forecast period. This pattern will allow for above
normal temperatures and daily chances for showers/storms. Greatest
coverage will be across the higher terrain each afternoon/evening.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers and thunderstorms have fired up
across portions of the High Country this afternoon. Storm motion
is relatively slow, so this will increase the potential for flash
flooding, especially for storms that continue to back build.
There`s decent instability across our CWA this afternoon, but with
little to no shear, we aren`t anticipating many, if any, severe
thunderstorms.

As for the synoptic pattern...A strong ridge will continue to
build across the Four Corners through the next couple of days
before the high slightly wobbles eastward. Even with a slight
shift in the general placement of this pressure system, above
normal afternoon high temperatures and daily thunderstorm chances
will remain through the entire forecast period. We are also
expecting an influx of additional moisture from the southeast
starting tomorrow and lasting through the first half of next week
at least. Then we could see a slight downward trend in daily
precipitation chances, although we aren`t expecting to "dry out".
An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for elevations below
4000` at the Grand Canyon and for Marble and Glen Canyon through
Sunday evening. Although these are the only areas where we have a
heat product in effect, all lower elevation locations will be
experiencing hot daytime highs through the next several days, so
avoid strenuous activity during the middle of the afternoon and
stay hydrated! As for precipitation, greatest chances will be
across the higher terrain each afternoon/early evening. Flash
flooding will likely be the main concern with all the recent
rainfall across our CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 24/18Z through Saturday 25/18Z...Expect mainly
VFR conditions. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z and mostly over or
near higher terrain features. Brief MVFR/IFR conditions in stronger
storms. Outside of any thunderstorms, expect light and variable or
terrain driven winds.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 25/18Z through Monday 27/18Z...Expect mainly VFR
conditions. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA between 18Z-03Z each day. Brief MVFR
or IFR conditions in stronger storms. Outside of any thunderstorms,
expect light and variable or terrain driven winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Very hot at lower elevations
that do not receive rain or outflow boundaries. Otherwise, expect
scattered showers and thunderstorms each day. Storms will be most
common over the higher terrain, due to weak steering flow. Moisture
values remain high, so any storms that do develop are capable of
producing localized flooding. Outside of storm activity, expect
generally light winds.

Monday through Wednesday...Expect active Monsoon conditions, but
still hot at lower elevations that do not receive rain or outflow
boundaries. Steering flow does improve during this period, from the
south, so expect greater coverage as storms move off of terrain each
afternoon and evening. Outside of thunderstorm activity, expect
generally light winds.


&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ005-
006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS Flagstaff Office