016
FXUS65 KFGZ 091959
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1259 PM MST Tue Jun 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and windy conditions will continue through
this evening with areas of critical fire weather. Winds begin to
diminish by midweek, and daytime temperatures become above normal.
Slight chances for a few showers or thunderstorms return by the
weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A longwave trough stationed over the western states
is expected to remain in place through this evening before
shifting eastward on Wednesday. The result has been more of the
same for warm and dry conditions today, with southwest winds at
15-25 mph gusting up to 35-40 mph downslope of the Mogollon Rim in
particular. Dry and warm conditions will continue on Wednesday,
but with the trough shifting eastward a bit lighter winds are in
store, becoming more southwest to west at 10-20 mph gusting to 30
mph. The gusty winds and dry conditions are combining to produce
critical fire weather conditions today with a Red Flag Warning in
effect for much of northern Arizona until 8 PM this evening. In
addition, winds will be strong enough this afternoon for portions
of the area from Flagstaff eastward for a Wind Advisory where a
few wind gusts over 40 mph are anticipated. Elevated fire weather
conditions will continue on Wednesday with humidity as low as 5%,
but the lighter winds will fall below Red Flag Warning criteria.
For Thursday...A weak high pressure system begins to build over
the southwest United States. Dry conditions will continue, while
winds will turn a lighter west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph with a
much reduced fire weather threat. Daytime temperatures will turn
slightly warmer with mild overnight temperatures.
From Friday onward..Models continue to show a weak high pressure
system developing over northwest Mexico and the southwest United
States. As a result, the general low-level flow looks to favor
some moisture moving across Arizona from over the Gulf of
California. Moisture amounts continue to look limited, but likely
enough for isolated thunderstorms at least through the weekend.
Confidence is moderate (30-50%) Saturday afternoon over the White
Mountains for measurable rain and thunder. The moisture increase
will probably be short- lived as drier air is expected to move
over our area early next week as a series of dry shortwave troughs
from the north brush Arizona.
&&
.AVIATION...Tuesday 09/18Z through Wednesday 10/18Z...
OUTLOOK...Wednesday 10/18Z through Friday 12/18Z...
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Thursday...Dry and windy today, a Red
Flag Warning remains in effect for most of northern Arizona through
this evening. Warm and dry with lighter winds on Wednesday and
Thursday. Winds are southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph today,
becoming southwest to west 10-15 mph gusting 20-30 mph on Wednesday,
then diminishing to 5-15 mph on Thursday. Minimum RH is 5-15% each
day.
Friday through Sunday...Warm with increasing moisture. Chances for
showers and thunderstorms each day, highest on Saturday. Winds are
southwest to west 5-15 mph on Friday, increasing to 10-20 mph on
Saturday and Sunday. Minimum RH is 10-20% on Friday, 10-25% on
Saturday, then 10-20% on Sunday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ104>107-109>117-139-140.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ010>015-039-040.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Zanker/McCollum
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
