058
FXUS65 KFGZ 131133
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
433 AM MST Sat Jun 13 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Chances for showers and thunderstorms are expected
through the weekend with slightly cooler temperatures. Warm
temperatures and drier conditions return for next week.
&&
.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains settled off to our east with a
good southerly fetch bringing moisture into the region. Some light
showers continue to push through eastern Arizona early this morning
with additional showers and thunderstorms developing through this
afternoon. Moisture will be a bit more widespread than on Friday so
anticipating scattered showers/storms to develop. QPF amounts range
from a trace to 0.50", in more robust storms. While it looks to be a
more active day across the state today, the cloud cover this morning
may end up limiting overall convective potential so it is something
to keep an eye on as we head into the early afternoon. Any breaks in
the clouds should help with surface heating and convective
initiation. Again, we would ideally like to see some of the cloud
cover lessen. Any storms that do develop today will be capable of
gusty outflow winds and hail, along with lightning and heavy rain.
As we head into tonight, the moisture starts to become more diffuse
across the area and dry air wins out as it pushes in from the west.
We don`t dry out super fast so some chances for showers will
continue on Sunday with decreasing activity into Monday.
Heading through the middle of next week, we are once again dominated
by a building ridge across the Desert Southwest, with dry conditions
and hot temperatures returning. Models hint at some moisture
sneaking back into the region for the latter half of next week,
mainly in the White Mountains region, but the moisture return looks
to be short lived.
&&
.AVIATION...Saturday 13/12Z through Sunday 14/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions with brief MVFR in SCT -SHRA/-TSRA between 18Z-02Z.
Strong, erratic gusts/outflows to 30-35 kts INVOF of TSRA. Outside
of storms, expect SW winds 5-15 kts, becoming light and variable
after 03Z.
OUTLOOK...Sunday 14/12Z through Tuesday 16/12Z...Mainly VFR
conditions with brief MVFR in ISO-SCT -SHRA/-TSRA on Sunday and
ISO -SHRA/-TSRA on Monday. Strong, erratic gusts/outflows INVOF
of TSRA. Outside of storms, expect S-SW winds 5-15 kts each day
with light and variable winds overnight.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms are expected each afternoon with isolated pockets of
wetting rain possible. Strong, erratic winds gusting to 30-35 mph
are possible near storms. Outside of storms, expect southwest to
west winds at 5-15 mph each day.
Monday through Wednesday...Isolated showers or thunderstorms Monday
afternoon, mainly along the Mogollon Rim and in the White Mountains.
Dry conditions return for Tuesday and Wednesday with minimum RH
between 5-15% each afternoon. Expect west to northwest winds around
10-20 mph each day.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Meola
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
