437
FXUS65 KFGZ 231048
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
348 AM MST Fri Oct 23 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Cooler and drier conditions are expected for today,
with chances for showers returning over the weekend. Gradually
warmer and dry conditions set in for the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...A cold front has move eastward across
Arizona as the parent upper-level low propagates eastward. Drier
air has been ushered into much of the state as of this morning,
with dewpoints falling to into the 30s F and 40s F across northern
Arizona. PWAT has also dropped, with the FGZ RAOB falling from
0.72 inches at 18Z to 0.53 inches by 00Z. As such, cooler and
drier conditions are expected to prevail across the region today.

While dry air has moved in, flooding on area waterways remains a
threat through this morning after the prolonged rainfall from the
past 48 hours. Water levels should gradually fall through this
morning, but will likely still remain elevated into much of the day
today.

Saturday and Sunday...A fragment of the aforementioned upper-level
low looks to break off from the jet, becoming a closed-low over
Arizona over the weekend. Cool temperatures look to remain, but
precipitation chances look to creep back into the region. The most
likely chances for rain and potentially an isolated thunderstorm
will mainly be over the higher terrain on Saturday, shifting into
eastern Arizona on Sunday.

Monday through Thursday...As the closed-low lifts into Colorado,
weak ridging, or even quasi-zonal flow looks to build into the
southwest. Gradually warming temperatures and dry conditions look to
prevail into much of next week. A deepening trough over the Pacific
Northwest looks to potentially breakdown this pattern near the end
of next week, however model guidance remains uncertain in the exact
track of the low.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 23/12Z through Saturday 24/12Z...VFR conditions.
Winds S/SW 5-10 kts, 10-20 kts across eastern Arizona, becoming
light and VRB after 02Z. Patchy MVFR CIGS over the higher terrain
through 14Z, and potentially again after 10Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 24/12Z through Monday 26/12Z...ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/-
TSRA over the higher terrain Saturday afternoon, and again Sunday
afternoon near the AZ/NM border. Brief MVFR conditions possible in
SHRA, otherwise VFR with VRB winds 5-10 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Drier and cooler conditions set
in for today, before chances for showers and thunderstorms return to
the higher terrain on Saturday. South/southwest winds 5-10 mph, with
breezier winds 10-20 mph across eastern Arizona.

Sunday through Tuesday...Isolated showers and storms remain on
Sunday across eastern Arizona. Drier and warmer conditions set in
for Monday and Tuesday. Winds variable 5-10 mph for Sunday and
Monday, becoming south on Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Humphreys

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS Flagstaff Office