845
FXUS65 KFGZ 091812
AFDFGZ
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1112 AM MST Tue Jun 9 2026
.SYNOPSIS...Dry and windy conditions will continue through
Tuesday with areas of critical fire weather. Winds begin to
diminish by midweek, and daytime temperatures become above normal.
Slight chance for a few showers or thunderstorms by the weekend.
&&
.DISCUSSION...A longwave trough remained stationed over the
western states this morning and is expected to remain in place
through this evening before shifting eastward on Wednesday. The
result will be more of the same today, with southwest winds at
15-25 mph gusting to 35-45 mph, dry conditions and warm
temperatures. Dry and warm conditions will continue on Wednesday
but with the trough shifting eastward a bit lighter winds are in
store, becoming more southwest to west at 10-20 mph gusting to 30
mph. The gusty winds and dry conditions will combine to produce
critical fire weather conditions today with a Red Flag Warning in
effect for much of northern Arizona into this evening. In
addition, winds will be strong enough this afternoon for portions
of the area from Flagstaff eastward for a Wind Advisory where wind
gusts to 45 mph are anticipated. Near-critical fire weather
conditions will continue on Wednesday but the lighter winds will
fall below Red Flag Warning criteria.
For Thursday...A weak high pressure system begins to build over
the southwest United States. Dry conditions will continue but
winds will turn a lighter west to southwest at 5 to 15 mph with a
much reduced fire weather threat. Daytime temperatures will turn
slightly warmer with mild overnight temperatures.
From Friday onward..Models continue to show a weak high pressure
system developing over northwest Mexico and the southwest United
States. As a result, the general low-level flow looks to favor
some moisture moving across Arizona from over the Gulf of
California. Moisture amounts continue to look limited but likely
enough for isolated thunderstorms at least through the weekend.
However, when it comes to moisture from the south, thunderstorm
activity over Mexico could juice-up those moisture amounts. We`ll
have to wait and see. The moisture increase will probably be
short-lived as drier air is expected to move over our area early
next week as a series of dry shortwave troughs from the north
brush Arizona.
&&
.AVIATION...Tuesday 09/18Z through Wednesday 10/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds are SW 15-25 kts with gusts 30-40 kts, diminishing to 5-15
kts after 03Z.
OUTLOOK...Wednesday 10/18Z through Friday 12/18Z...VFR conditions.
Winds are SW-W 10-15 kts gusting 20-30 kts on Wednesday,
decreasing to 5-15 kts on Thursday. Winds generally subsiding to
5-10 kts each night.
&&
.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Wednesday...Look for warm, dry and
windy conditions with elevated fire weather danger. A Red Flag
Warning remains in effect for most of northern Arizona through this
evening. Winds southwest 15-25 mph with gusts 30-40 mph today, then
a lighter southwest to west 10-15 mph gusting 20-30 mph on
Wednesday. The minimum RH forecast is 5-15% each day.
hint
Thursday through Saturday...Expect warm temperatures with much
lighter winds. Dry on Thursday, then slight chances for showers and
thunderstorms on Friday and Saturday. Winds southwest to west 5-15
mph Thursday and Friday, increasing to 10-20 mph on Saturday.
Minimum RH forecast 5-15% Thursday, increasing to 10-20% on Friday
and Saturday.
&&
.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ104>107-109>117-139-140.
Wind Advisory until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ010>015-039-040.
&&
$$
PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum
For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff
NWS Flagstaff Office
Tucson, AZ 
