251
FXUS65 KFGZ 112256
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
356 PM MST Sat Jul 11 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Hot temperatures will remain this weekend. On Sunday,
monsoon moisture begins to return to the area bringing better
storm chances and more extensive coverage of storms across the
state through next week. With the added moisture, temperatures
begin to trend downward Monday towards seasonal averages.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Area of high pressure continues to move off towards
the northeast setting up in a position more favorable for monsoon
moisture to make its way into the southern half of Arizona on
Sunday. Moisture continues to push north Monday before covering
most of the state by Tuesday and lasting throughout the week.
Above average hot temperatures will last at least one more day
before the added humidity and cloud cover moderates the heat with
a trend towards normal temperatures by midweek and potentially a
few degrees below normal by next weekend. An Extreme Heat Warning
remains in effect for lower elevations of the Grand Canyons and
Marble Canyon until Sunday evening.

For Sunday storms form along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains
and push out westward towards the mid elevation deserts. With low
level layers still being on the dry side, downburst winds towards
severe levels are a possibility. Currently Storm Prediction
Center has most of Yavapai County and the southwestern half of
Gila County in a Marginal Risk for severe storms to account for
the downburst wind potential. A marginal risk for flash flooding
is also possible generally in areas south of I-40, but the drier
low levels of the atmosphere may come into play on limiting
rainfall amounts with this initial push.

Depending on how much cloud cover and overturning of the
atmosphere occurs Sunday a similar setup looks to occur on Monday,
storms firing over the higher terrain and moving west to
northwestward. The main difference on Monday will be the lower
levels of the atmosphere being moistened up and a bit more
conducive to higher rainfall amounts. A marginal risk of flash
flooding continues for southern and western halves of Arizona. By
Tuesday into Wednesday the marginal risk of flash flooding
overspreads most of the state with numerous showers/storms
expected each day. This trend continues for the rest of the week
as monsoon moisture continued to remain over the state.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 12/00Z through Monday 13/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA possible mainly near a KSEZ-KPAN line
through 03Z. SCT SHRA/TSRA expected again after 19Z, mainly south
and west of a KGCN-KFLG-KJTC line. Brief periods of MVFR conditions
and gusty outflow winds possible in and around TS. Winds SW-SE 5-15
kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 13/00Z through Wednesday 15/00Z...Mainly VFR. SCT
SHRA/TSRA each day, with the greatest likelihood south and west of a
KGCN-KFLG-KJTC line. Brief periods of MVFR conditions and gusty
outflow winds possible in and around TS. Winds SW-SE 5-15 kts each
day, becoming light and variable overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Remaining hot. Increasing
chances for showers and thunderstorms with activity spreading
further north and west each day. Strong storms with gusty winds will
be possible each afternoon and evening, mainly across Yavapai and
Gila counties. Outside of storms, winds 5-15 mph south through west
on Sunday shifting to south through southeast on Monday.

Tuesday through Thursday...Shower and thunderstorm activity
increasing across the region, best chances from the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains southward where wetting rains are likely. Otherwise,
turning a bit cooler with winds mainly southwest 5-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ Sunday for AZZ005-
006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff

NWS Flagstaff Office